Research

The NVIDIA Capital Network

NVIDIA has put its balance sheet behind 209 transactions since January 2024, across 290 counterparties. Thirty of those companies were funded from two or more separate points in the same loop. An interactive map of the structure.

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The 50/50 Deal Nobody is Modeling Correctly

Moderna's melanoma Phase 3 hit and the stock more than doubled. Under the 50/50 Merck structure, reported Cancer Vaccines revenue will understate the franchise by roughly half — and the estimate re-rate has three to four weeks left to run.

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Too Big to Own: The AI Complex Hit a Capital Ceiling

The AI complex hit a capital ceiling around ~$32 trillion. Now the market is selling the names with the best and accelerating fundamentals, and hiding in the mega-caps. It's a rotation on supply, not a change in thesis.

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The $2 Trillion Question

Are America's Largest Alternative Asset Managers Signaling a Credit Crisis? A line-by-line examination of Apollo and KKR's annual filings reveals hidden risk, opaque valuations, and the insurance-linked model that now underpins Wall Street's most powerful firms.

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Options Flow Reveals Wall Street's Tariff Winners and Losers

Within hours of the SCOTUS ruling, institutional options flow shifted dramatically. LULU, MCHP, and NKE saw the biggest bullish swings — while MSFT and WMT surprisingly turned bearish.

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SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs in Landmark 6-3 Ruling

The Supreme Court holds that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs — a decision with immediate, seismic implications for markets, trade policy, and $124B+ in collected duties.

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